Don’t Expect the Stock Market to Continue Current Path

Recency effect is the tendency to remember a more recent experience better than a previous experience.

Behavioral economists call this recency effect “availability” and it is programmed into our DNA: I touch a hot stove — ouch!; I learn not to touch a hot stove again. Eventually I use the contained flame to my advantage, to prepare meals for my nourishment. But the result of touching the stove and getting burned is still stored in my memory, inspiring me to use a hot pad and keep my hands well away from the heat.

For investors, recency effect can bias investing decisions based on recent market performance. Whether up or down, we tend to extrapolate the recent event into the future. If the market is going up, we are more likely to act on expectations of a rising market. The converse is also true. Both tendencies can be dangerous.

The Arizona Republic

Chart a Course of Financial Discipline

Most of us won’t have 97 years to save and invest. But Stephanie Mucha, who recently was featured in Barron’s, has. Ninety-seven long and productive years. And she has made the very most of each one.

Mucha’s peak annual earnings of $23,000 were modest even in 1994, when she retired. Still, she has managed to grow her assets to more than $5.5 million. Mucha has given $3 million to charity and retains $2.5 million — still percolating — in her portfolio. Her goal: to donate $6 million before she dies.

Mucha is obviously blessed with longevity, an enviable work ethic and a high financial IQ. But she doesn’t have any unusual advantages. She reads financial publications and uses good sense and, incredibly, does not even own a computer. Still she has succeeded. Fabulously.

Read the rest of Stephanie Mucha’s story here: The Arizona Republic